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March 25, 2009

Mortgage Rates Predictions

There are a few common questions that mortgage professionals hear over and over again. It doesn't matter what the market is doing or if the economy is booming or tanking. The questions are the same. They are:

Is this the best time to buy a house?
Do I have good credit?
The most common of all: Are mortgage rates headed up or down?


Let's focus on question #3, since it's the most common. The answer may not surprise you.

No one knows.

Why don't we know? That's a very complicated answer which requires a PhD in economics. Technically speaking, mortgage rates are comprised of many factors which are affected by even more factors and so on ....  it can all get very confusing.

Keeping that in mind, there are some factors and reports that move mortgage interest rates up or down. Knowing these factors and when these reports are issued can help you understand mortgage rates and to the best time to lock your mortgage rate.

Mortgage rates can rise and fall dramatically in just one day. Understanding as much as possible about mortgage rates will help you make the best financial decisions. You'll never completely be able to predict the future, but you can make choices that will get you the best deal when you're better informed.

Here are some factors and reports that greatly affect mortgage rates:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - The GDP determines the total dollar value of everything produced by all the people and all the companies in the U.S. It provides the best view of the economy's overall health and determines whether the country is considered in a recession or expansion. A lower month-over-month number can cause mortgage rates to decrease.
Retail Sales - Are consumers spending money or not? Retail sales represent two-thirds of the GDP and are a key predictor of economic growth. A month-over-month increase can cause mortgage rates to increase.
Employment Situation Report - Measures unemployment in the labor force, as well as the number of people on government or business payrolls. Lower unemployment percentage paired with a higher payroll number can cause rates to increase.
Consumer Price Index or CPI - The CPI is the average price we pay for goods and services. There is also Core CPI, which removes the cost of food and energy, as these are extremely volatile. A lower month-over-month number can mean inflation has ebbed, and therefore mortgage rates may decrease.
Producer Price Index or PPI - PPI is the average price that businesses pay to produce goods or services. Like Core CPI, Core PPI strips out the more volatile food and energy prices. A lower month-over-month number can mean inflation has receded, possibly causing rates to decrease.

To find the dates these reports are issued, check the Shirmeyer calendar, but be warned: The calendar contains a lot of data and can be confusing. It's best to work with a mortgage professional when studying this information.

You can also keep up-to-date on current rates with our mortgage Rate Watch Report.  If you are interested in receiving this on a weekly or monthly basis, click here, and click here to see a sample of this report.

There's never any pressure, so why not take five minutes to give me a call? We can discuss what makes sense for you right now - which might be just staying put in your current home loan. With a short conversation we can talk over the options, and you can then rest assured that given all the recent changes, you are making smart decisions on your home financing.

Rates are within inches of historic lows - so don't wait to miss a great opportunity to purchase the home of your dreams, or get more money back in your budget by a smart refinance.

March 20, 2009

Identity Theft IQ Test

Are you 'at risk' for identity theft? This quiz was developed by PrivacyRights.org and can help you change or eliminate some of the things you are doing now that puts you at risk.


_____ I receive several offers of pre-approved credit every week. (5 points)
_____ Add 5 points if you do not shred them (cross-cut shredder preferred) before putting them in the trash.
_____ I carry my Social Security card in my wallet. (10 points)
_____ My state driver's license has my SSN printed on it, and I have not contacted the Department of Motor Vehicles to request a different number.
(10 points)
_____ I do not believe someone would break into my house to steal my personal information. (10 points)
_____ I do not use a firewall on my personal computer. (10 points)
_____ I have not ordered a copy of my credit reports for at least 2 years.
(20 points)
_____ I use an unlocked, open box at work or at my home to drop off my outgoing mail. (10 points)
_____ I do not have a P.O. Box or a locked, secured mailbox. (5 points)
_____ I carry my military ID in my wallet at all times. (It displays my SSN.)
(10 points)
_____ I do not shred (cross-cut shredder preferred) my banking and credit information when I throw it in the trash. (10 points)
_____ I throw away old credit and debit cards without shredding or cutting them up. (10 points)
_____ I provide my Social Security Number (SSN) whenever asked, without asking why it is needed and how it will be safeguarded. (10 points)
_____  Add 5 points if you provide it orally without checking to see who might be listening nearby.
_____  I leave my purse or wallet in my car. (10 points)
_____  I am required to use my SSN at work as an employee ID or at college as a student ID number. (5 points)
_____  My SSN is printed on my employee badge that I wear at work or in public. Or it is posted on my time card in full view of others, or is on other documents frequently seen by many others at work. (10 points)
_____  I have my SSN and/or driver's license number printed on my personal checks. (10 points)
_____  I am listed in a "Who's Who" guide. (5 points)
_____  I carry my insurance card (including Medicare) in my wallet and either my SSN or that of my spouse is the ID number. (10 points)
_____  I do not believe that people would root around in my trash looking for credit or financial information or for documents containing my SSN. (10 points)
_____  I do not verify that all financial (credit card, checking) statements are accurate monthly. (10 points)


Each of these questions represents a possible avenue for an identity thief.

Understanding Your Score:

  • 100+ points #151; Recent surveys indicate that 8-9 million people are victims of ID theft each year. You are at high risk. We recommend you purchase a crosscut paper shredder, become more security-aware in document handling, and start to question why people need your personal data.
  • 50-99 points #151; Your odds of being victimized are about average.
  • 0-49 points #151; Congratulations. You have a high "IQ". Keep up the good work and don't let your guard down now.

Under 5%, Mortgages May Be Near The Bottom

 By JAMES R. HAGERTY, Wall Street Journal

The Federal Reserve is going to extraordinary lengths to push down long-term interest rates, including home-mortgage rates. But those hoping mortgage rates will fall sharply from current levels, already historically low, may be disappointed.

Mortgage firms Thursday were quoting rates averaging 4.75% on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, according to Zillow.com, a real-estate information service. That is down from more than 5% two days ago and about 6% in mid-November. But further big declines will be hard to achieve, partly because the mortgage-lending market has grown less competitive in the past year as hundreds of small banks and independent mortgage lenders have collapsed. The big banks that dominate the market are eager to boost their profits margins, not give deeper bargains to consumers.

Rates for borrowers with the strongest credit are likely to be in a range of roughly 4.5% to 4.75% for the rest of this year, says Mahesh Swaminathan, a mortgage strategist at Credit Suisse in New York.

Others say that is too optimistic. Assuming no big change in government policy, Walter Schmidt, an analyst at FTN Financial Capital Markets, sees a range of 4.75% to 5.5% for most of this year.

The Fed began driving mortgage rates down in late November when it announced plans to buy as much as $500 billion of mortgage securities this year. On Wednesday, the Fed expanded that program, saying it will spend as much as $1.25 trillion on such securities in 2009. That is enough to provide funding for more than half of all home-mortgage loans likely to be made in the U.S. this year.

The Fed also is buying long-term Treasury bonds to drive down rates on those securities, whose pricing affects mortgage rates.

By historical standards, rates look incredibly low. Until recently, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages hadn't been below 5% since the 1950s. For the past couple of months, rates have been bobbing between about 5% and 5.25%. The 30-year rate averaged 4.98% in the week ended March 19, down from 5.03% the prior week, according to Freddie Mac's survey. Fifteen-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 4.61%, down from 4.64%.

One reason mortgage rates often tick back up after a decline is that a rush of people seeking to refinance quickly causes backlogs at lenders, which frequently don't have enough employees to process all of the applications.

"If lenders are working people overtime to close loans, they don't have an incentive to compete too hard on price," says Arthur Frank, who heads research on mortgage securities at Deutsche Bank in New York.

The situation highlights a conundrum for the government. It wants low rates to spur the housing market, but also wants the banks to make profits on loans so they can return to financial health.

Many of the small mortgage banks that remain are struggling. Mortgage banks, often small, family-owned companies, aren't licensed to take deposits and so lack that source of money for their loans. Instead, they typically borrow money for short periods from so-called warehouse lenders. They use this short-term credit to make loans to their customers and then pay back the warehouse lenders after selling the loans to bigger banks or to government-backed mortgage investors Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

But this warehouse credit is much harder to obtain than it was a year or two ago because many of the big banks and Wall Street firms that used to provide it have exited that business.

Despite these constraints, the Fed's action is "going to be a plus" for the housing market, says Thomas Lawler, an economist in Leesburg, Va. Lower rates make it more likely that home prices will hit bottom in many parts of the country later this year, Mr. Lawler says. The recovery, though, is likely to be gradual, partly because rising unemployment reduces housing demand.

Christopher J. Mayer, a real-estate professor at Columbia Business School in New York, says the Fed's moves to cut rates are "helping to put a floor under the housing market." But he worries that the Fed could face huge losses on the mortgage securities if inflation fears eventually push interest rates much higher.

Still, the consumers who need these low rates the most aren't likely to get much help. Many people can't qualify for these low rates because their credit scores aren't high enough or they can't afford a down payment of 20% or more on a home purchase. Such people will be socked with fees that can drive up their housing costs considerably. Banks also have become far pickier about appraisals and are nixing many purchases as a result.

Others can't qualify for a refinancing because they owe far more on their homes than the estimated current market values. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have new refinancing programs that will let some borrowers refinance into lower rates even if they owe as much as 105% of the home value, but only for current loans owned or guaranteed by Fannie or Freddie.

Write to James R. Hagerty at bob.hagerty@wsj.com

March 09, 2009

Can President Obama's Housing Plan Help You?

Wednesday brought more details on the new “Making Home Affordable” program, which was created to help as many as 7 to 9 million homeowners who are making every effort to remain current on their mortgage payments. There are two important parts of this plan:

  • The first of these is a program that is available to homeowners who have a solid payment history on an existing home loan owned by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, but who have been unable to take advantage of today's favorable rates because their homes have lost value.
  • A second program, which involves loan modification, will help at-risk homeowners avoid foreclosure by reducing monthly payments.

Give me a call, so we can help determine if either of these programs may be right for your situation.

March 03, 2009

First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions About the Home Buyer Tax Credit

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 authorizes a tax credit of up to $8,000 for qualified first-time home buyers purchasing a principal residence on or after January 1, 2009 and before December 1, 2009. The following questions and answers provide basic information about the tax credit. If you have more specific questions, we strongly encourage you to consult a qualified tax advisor or legal professional about your unique situation.

Who is eligible to claim the tax credit?

First-time home buyers purchasing any kind of home—new or resale—are eligible for the tax credit. To qualify for the tax credit, a home purchase must occur on or after January 1, 2009 and before December 1, 2009. For the purposes of the tax credit, the purchase date is the date when closing occurs and the title to the property transfers to the home owner.

What is the definition of a first-time home buyer?

The law defines "first-time home buyer" as a buyer who has not owned a principal residence during the three year period prior to the purchase. For married taxpayers, the law tests the homeownership history of both the home buyer and his/her spouse. For example, if you have not owned a home in the past three years but your spouse has owned a principal residence, neither you nor your spouse qualifies for the first-time home buyer tax credit. However, unmarried joint purchasers may allocate the credit amount to any buyer who qualifies as a first-time buyer, such as may occur if a parent jointly purchases a home with a son or daughter. Ownership of a vacation home or rental property not used as a principal residence does not disqualify a buyer as a first-time home buyer.

How is the amount of the tax credit determined?

The tax credit is equal to 10 percent of the home’s purchase price up to a maximum of $8,000.

Are there any income limits for claiming the tax credit?

The tax credit amount is reduced for buyers with a modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) of more than $75,000 for single taxpayers and $150,000 for married taxpayers filing a joint return. The tax credit amount is reduced to zero for taxpayers with MAGI of more than $95,000 (single) or $170,000 (married) and is reduced proportionally for taxpayers with MAGIs between these amounts.

What is "modified adjusted gross income"?

Modified adjusted gross income or MAGI is defined by the IRS. To find it, a taxpayer must first determine "adjusted gross income" or AGI. AGI is total income for a year minus certain deductions (known as "adjustments" or "above-the-line deductions"), but before itemized deductions from Schedule A or personal exemptions are subtracted. On Forms 1040 and 1040A, AGI is the last number on page 1 and first number on page 2 of the form. For Form 1040-EZ, AGI appears on line 4 (as of 2007). Note that AGI includes all forms of income including wages, salaries, interest income, dividends and capital gains. To determine modified adjusted gross income (MAGI), add to AGI certain amounts such as foreign income, foreign-housing deductions, student-loan deductions, IRA-contribution deductions and deductions for higher foreign- housing deductions, student-loan deductions, IRA-contribution deductions and deductions for higher education costs.

If my modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) is above the limit, do I qualify for any tax credit?


Possibly. It depends on your income. Partial credits of less than $8,000 are available for some taxpayers whose MAGI exceeds the phaseout limits.

Can you give me an example of how the partial tax credit is determined?

Just as an example, assume that a married couple has a modified adjusted gross income of $160,000. The applicable phaseout to qualify for the tax credit is $150,000, and the couple is $10,000 over this amount. Dividing $10,000 by $20,000 yields 0.5. When you subtract 0.5 from 1.0, the result is 0.5. To determine the amount of the partial first-time home buyer tax credit that is available to this couple, multiply $8,000 by 0.5.  The result is $4,000.  Here’s another example: assume that an individual home buyer has a modified adjusted gross income of $88,000. The buyer’s income exceeds $75,000 by $13,000. Dividing $13,000 by $20,000 yields 0.65. When you subtract 0.65 from 1.0, the result is 0.35. Multiplying $8,000 by 0.35 shows that the buyer is eligible for a partial tax credit of $2,800.  Please remember that these examples are intended to provide a general idea of how the tax credit might be applied in different circumstances. You should always consult your tax advisor for information relating to your specific circumstances.

How is this home buyer tax credit different from the tax credit that Congress enacted in July of 2008?

The most significant difference is that this tax credit does not have to be repaid. Because it had to be repaid, the previous "credit" was essentially an interest-free loan. This tax incentive is a true tax credit. However, home buyers must use the residence as a principal residence for at least three years or face recapture of the tax credit amount. Certain exceptions apply.

How do I claim the tax credit? Do I need to complete a form or application?

Participating in the tax credit program is easy. You claim the tax credit on your federal income tax return. Specifically, home buyers should complete IRS Form 5405 to determine their tax credit amount, and then claim this amount on Line 69 of their 1040 income tax return. No other applications or forms are required, and no pre-approval is necessary. However, you will want to be sure that you qualify for the credit under the income limits and first-time home buyer tests.

What types of homes will qualify for the tax credit?

Any home that will be used as a principal residence will qualify for the credit. This includes single-family detached homes, attached homes like townhouses and condominiums, manufactured homes (also known as mobile homes) and houseboats. The definition of principal residence is identical to the one used to determine whether you may qualify for the $250,000 / $500,000 capital gain tax exclusion for principal residences.

I read that the tax credit is "refundable." What does that mean?

The fact that the credit is refundable means that the home buyer credit can be claimed even if the taxpayer has little or no federal income tax liability to offset. Typically this involves the government sending the taxpayer a check for a portion or even all of the amount of the refundable tax credit. For example, if a qualified home buyer expected, notwithstanding the tax credit, federal income tax liability of $5,000 and had tax withholding of $4,000 for the year, then without the tax credit the taxpayer would owe the IRS $1,000 on April 15th. Suppose now that the taxpayer qualified for the $8,000 home buyer tax credit. As a result, the taxpayer would receive a check for $7,000 ($8,000 minus the $1,000 owed).

I purchased a home in early 2009 and have already filed to receive the $7,500 tax credit on my 2008 tax returns. How can I claim the new $8,000 tax credit instead?

Home buyers in this situation may file an amended 2008 tax return with a 1040X form. You should consult with a tax advisor to ensure you file this return properly. Instead of buying a new home from a home builder, I hired a contractor to construct a home on a lot that I already own.

Do I still qualify for the tax credit?

Yes. For the purposes of the home buyer tax credit, a principal residence that is constructed by the home owner is treated by the tax code as having been "purchased" on the date the owner first occupies the house. In this situation, the date of first occupancy must be on or after January 1, 2009 and before December 1, 2009.  In contrast, for newly-constructed homes bought from a home builder, eligibility for the tax credit is determined by the settlement date.

Can I claim the tax credit if I finance the purchase of my home under a mortgage revenue bond (MRB) program?

Yes. The tax credit can be combined with the MRB home buyer program. Note that first-time home buyers who purchased a home in 2008 may not claim the tax credit if they are participating in an MRB program.

I live in the District of Columbia. Can I claim both the Washington, D.C. first-time home buyer credit and this new credit?

No. You can claim only one.

I am not a U.S. citizen. Can I claim the tax credit?

Maybe. Anyone who is not a nonresident alien (as defined by the IRS), who has not owned a principal residence in the previous three years and who meets the income limits test may claim the tax credit for a qualified home purchase. The IRS provides a definition of "nonresident alien" in IRS Publication 519.

Is a tax credit the same as a tax deduction?

No. A tax credit is a dollar-for-dollar reduction in what the taxpayer owes. That means that a taxpayer who owes $8,000 in income taxes and who receives an $8,000 tax credit would owe nothing to the IRS. A tax deduction is subtracted from the amount of income that is taxed. Using the same example, assume the taxpayer is in the 15 percent tax bracket and owes $8,000 in income taxes. If the taxpayer receives an $8,000 deduction, the taxpayer’s tax liability would be reduced by $1,200 (15 percent of $8,000), or lowered from $8,000 to $6,800.

I bought a home in 2008. Do I qualify for this credit?

No, but if you purchased your first home between April 9, 2008 and January 1, 2009, you may qualify for a different tax credit.

Is there any way for a home buyer to access the money allocable to the credit sooner than waiting to file their 2009 tax return?

Yes. Prospective home buyers who believe they qualify for the tax credit are permitted to reduce their income tax withholding. Reducing tax withholding (up to the amount of the credit) will enable the buyer to accumulate cash by raising his/her take home pay. This money can then be applied to the downpayment.  Buyers should adjust their withholding amount on their W-4 via their employer or through their quarterly estimated tax payment. IRS Publication 919 contains rules and guidelines for income tax withholding.  Prospective home buyers should note that if income tax withholding is reduced and the tax credit qualified purchase does not occur, then the individual would be liable for repayment to the IRS of income tax and possible interest charges and penalties. Further, rule changes made as part of the economic stimulus legislation allow home buyers to claim the tax credit and participate in a program financed by tax-exempt bonds. Some state housing finance agencies, such as the Missouri Housing Development Commission, have introduced programs that provide short-term credit as the Missouri Housing Development Commission, have introduced programs that provide short-term credit acceleration loans that may be used to fund a downpayment. Prospective home buyers should inquire with their state housing finance agency to determine the availability of such a program in their community.

If I’m qualified for the tax credit and buy a home in 2009, can I apply the tax credit against my 2008 tax return?

Yes. The law allows taxpayers to choose ("elect") to treat qualified home purchases in 2009 as if the purchase occurred on December 31, 2008. This means that the 2008 income limit (MAGI) applies and the election accelerates when the credit can be claimed (tax filing for 2008 returns instead of for 2009 returns). A benefit of this election is that a home buyer in 2009 will know their 2008 MAGI with certainty, thereby helping the buyer know whether the income limit will reduce their credit amount. Taxpayers buying a home who wish to claim it on their 2008 tax return, but who have already submitted their 2008 return to the IRS, may file an amended 2008 return claiming the tax credit. You should consult with a tax professional to determine how to arrange this.

For a home purchase in 2009, can I choose whether to treat the purchase as occurring in 2008 or 2009, depending on in which year my credit amount is the largest?

Yes. If the applicable income phaseout would reduce your home buyer tax credit amount in 2009 and a larger credit would be available using the 2008 MAGI amounts, then you can choose the year that yields the largest credit amount. NAHB is providing the information on this web site for general guidance only. The information on this site does not constitute the provision of legal advice, tax advice, accounting services, investment advice, or professional consulting of any kind nor should it be construed as such. The information provided herein should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional tax, accounting, legal, or other competent advisers. Before making any decision or taking any action on this information, you should consult a qualified professional adviser to whom you have provided all of the facts applicable to your particular situation or question. None of the tax information on this web site is intended to be used nor can it be used by any taxpayer, for the purpose of avoiding penalties that may be imposed on the taxpayer. The information is provided "as is," with no assurance or guarantee of completeness, accuracy, or timeliness of the information, and without warranty of any kind, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of performance, merchantability, and fitness for a particular purpose.

 


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